First published in the Evening Standard, 9 November 2007

With the markets hypnotized by the approach of $100 oil, analysts are pointing the finger at all the usual suspects: speculators, the OPEC bogeyman, the weak dollar, soaring consumption in China and India, and geopolitical tensions. All play a part but the real cause is altogether less palatable. The world is running short of oil, and this time it is likely to be permanent.

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