Comments on: Open letter to Duncan Clarke http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35 David Strahan is an award-winning investigative journalist and documentary film-maker who specializes in popularizing some of the most difficult and important stories in business and science. Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:28:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Tony http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-148 Tony Thu, 13 Sep 2007 02:46:28 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-148 I was convinced years ago that peak oil is coming. The key question has to be - what are the long term implications for the world? Energy and resource crises are a pattern of our historical evolution (read Jared Diamond’s books). History shows how humans respond. Desperation leads to increasing violence by the have-nots against the haves. With nothing to lose and everything to gain, humans will do anything to ensure their survival and that of their families and their countries. Societies under threat draw together to face the peril and we look for a ‘saviour’ whether military, political or spiritual to protect us. We are already seeing signs emerging with the Iraq war and the rise in extremism of all persuasions throughout the world. The fundamental difference between the past and today is the number of people now on the planet. The destruction of the Aztec and Inca civilisations by the Conquistadors and the death of tens of millions will be as nothing now that there are over six billion people on this planet and our destructive weapons are immeasurably more powerful. One thing that is clear is that when (not if) economic collapse hits us we have to expect an increasingly unstable and violent world where the strong will survive and the weak perish. All those apocalyptic dramas such as Mad Max, Waterworld, Postman etc could become reality. Should we allow that to happen? Can we stop it? History would suggest not. I was convinced years ago that peak oil is coming. The key question has to be – what are the long term implications for the world? Energy and resource crises are a pattern of our historical evolution (read Jared Diamond’s books). History shows how humans respond. Desperation leads to increasing violence by the have-nots against the haves. With nothing to lose and everything to gain, humans will do anything to ensure their survival and that of their families and their countries. Societies under threat draw together to face the peril and we look for a ‘saviour’ whether military, political or spiritual to protect us. We are already seeing signs emerging with the Iraq war and the rise in extremism of all persuasions throughout the world. The fundamental difference between the past and today is the number of people now on the planet. The destruction of the Aztec and Inca civilisations by the Conquistadors and the death of tens of millions will be as nothing now that there are over six billion people on this planet and our destructive weapons are immeasurably more powerful.

One thing that is clear is that when (not if) economic collapse hits us we have to expect an increasingly unstable and violent world where the strong will survive and the weak perish. All those apocalyptic dramas such as Mad Max, Waterworld, Postman etc could become reality. Should we allow that to happen? Can we stop it? History would suggest not.

]]> By: Jason Kemp http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-118 Jason Kemp Wed, 22 Aug 2007 00:06:57 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-118 From previous shocks we should have worked out that it takes years/decades to change consumption patterns and so we had better get started now. If we have a few extra years that is good - but the pricing and security of supply issues says cheap oil has gone. Now what is left is more expensive and harder to get at. Denial is not a useful form of risk management. Looking at Dr Sadad-Al Husseini's comments in the Four Corners video (called Peak Oil?) it seems like the formerly vast Saudi fields are being nursed along and no extra productionm is available. Given the dominance of those Saudi fields it is just not smart to pretend that peak oil isn't real. From previous shocks we should have worked out that it takes years/decades to change consumption patterns and so we had better get started now.

If we have a few extra years that is good – but the pricing and security of supply issues says cheap oil has gone. Now what is left is more expensive and harder to get at. Denial is not a useful form of risk management.

Looking at Dr Sadad-Al Husseini’s comments in the Four Corners video (called Peak Oil?) it seems like the formerly vast Saudi fields are being nursed along and no extra productionm is available. Given the dominance of those Saudi fields it is just not smart to pretend that peak oil isn’t real.

]]> By: Kamau Beno http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-115 Kamau Beno Tue, 21 Aug 2007 17:04:24 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-115 This kind of exchange/dialogue is very healthy for the public discourse because as the author said, the critics of the "theory" do point out weaknesses and I think in the dazzling rebuttals we (Joe Public)get greater clarity of how the world oil machine works and why its demise is going to cause so much turmoil. However, I would hurry to add that too much time spent upon the deniers is counter productive unless it serves to further clarify the facts, tweak the analysis, and publicize the issue at large. Outstanding response Mr. Strahan. This kind of exchange/dialogue is very healthy for the public discourse because as the author said, the critics of the “theory” do point out weaknesses and I think in the dazzling rebuttals we (Joe Public)get greater clarity of how the world oil machine works and why its demise is going to cause so much turmoil. However, I would hurry to add that too much time spent upon the deniers is counter productive unless it serves to further clarify the facts, tweak the analysis, and publicize the issue at large. Outstanding response Mr. Strahan.

]]> By: Oil investor http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-109 Oil investor Mon, 20 Aug 2007 12:35:04 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-109 I have studied the oil market for some time. It seems clear to me that cheap oil is an era over. Peak oil is gaining force, and it I believe that there is serious over-reporting of reserves coming from the main OPEC countries. Imagine what would happen the day that Saudi-Arabia officially cuts its recoverable reserves by 3/4. I become more and more convinced that the world will see an oil shock that will make 1929 pale in comparison. When this shock will come, I don't know, but before 2025, I'm sure. I have studied the oil market for some time. It seems clear to me that cheap oil is an era over. Peak oil is gaining force, and it I believe that there is serious over-reporting of reserves coming from the main OPEC countries. Imagine what would happen the day that Saudi-Arabia officially cuts its recoverable reserves by 3/4. I become more and more convinced that the world will see an oil shock that will make 1929 pale in comparison. When this shock will come, I don’t know, but before 2025, I’m sure.

]]> By: Gary McMurtry http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-106 Gary McMurtry Sun, 19 Aug 2007 07:20:30 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-106 All the evidence I've read points to global liquids (oil plus alternative fuels) peaking before 2010. Ken Deffeyes, using Hubbert Linearization methods, called the peak for global conventional oil in 2005. We seem to be on a brief plateau, with a slight downward trend, to now, mid-2007. Khebab at The Oil Drum (TOD) predicts the peak of global liquids at mid-2009, Colin Campbell of ASPO at 2010. I have not yet read Strahan's book, but a global peak at 2015 to 2020 seems optimistic in light of the above, and it does not incorporate West Texas' (Jeff Brown at TOD) Export Land Model, which predicts net exports will decline considerably faster than the production rates of exporting countries because of growing internal consumption, e.g., UK. So, unlike Duncan Clarke, to me a Dead Man Walking, I would be wildly happy to learn we have even as much time as another 8 to 13 years before the peak, because quite frankly, we don't, and we can all thank certain OPEC countries for the misguidance. All the evidence I’ve read points to global liquids (oil plus alternative fuels) peaking before 2010. Ken Deffeyes, using Hubbert Linearization methods, called the peak for global conventional oil in 2005. We seem to be on a brief plateau, with a slight downward trend, to now, mid-2007. Khebab at The Oil Drum (TOD) predicts the peak of global liquids at mid-2009, Colin Campbell of ASPO at 2010. I have not yet read Strahan’s book, but a global peak at 2015 to 2020 seems optimistic in light of the above, and it does not incorporate West Texas’ (Jeff Brown at TOD) Export Land Model, which predicts net exports will decline considerably faster than the production rates of exporting countries because of growing internal consumption, e.g., UK.

So, unlike Duncan Clarke, to me a Dead Man Walking, I would be wildly happy to learn we have even as much time as another 8 to 13 years before the peak, because quite frankly, we don’t, and we can all thank certain OPEC countries for the misguidance.

]]> By: stephen ellis http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-105 stephen ellis Sat, 18 Aug 2007 09:54:13 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-105 I find it incredible that people such as Duncan Clarke and many others are blatantly ignorant and dismissive of the threat posed by peak oil. For the ordinary person trying to raise a family and get by, it is of massively important for our future. It is important for everyone to understand the concept of oil depletion, instead of having the wool pulled over our eyes by goverment ineptitude and academic sloppiness. I find it incredible that people such as Duncan Clarke and many others are blatantly ignorant and dismissive of the threat posed by peak oil. For the ordinary person trying to raise a family and get by, it is of massively important for our future. It is important for everyone to understand the concept of oil depletion, instead of having the wool pulled over our eyes by goverment ineptitude and academic sloppiness.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-103 Kevin Fri, 17 Aug 2007 08:44:13 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-103 But David, isn't the world a much rosier place when we can believe that the party will never end? But David, isn’t the world a much rosier place when we can believe that the party will never end?

]]> By: Scott http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35&cpage=1#comment-102 Scott Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:26:41 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=35#comment-102 There are actually people who think that oil production will never peak and go into decline. Geologists only need to show an approximate rate at which the oil is produced by natural forces and compare that to the rate we use it. I'm sure we are using oil at a much faster rate than it can be replaced by nature. How could we not run out? There are actually people who think that oil production will never peak and go into decline. Geologists only need to show an approximate rate at which the oil is produced by natural forces and compare that to the rate we use it. I’m sure we are using oil at a much faster rate than it can be replaced by nature. How could we not run out?

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