Comments on: WEC predicts oil peak in 10-20 years http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=48 David Strahan is an award-winning investigative journalist and documentary film-maker who specializes in popularizing some of the most difficult and important stories in business and science. Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:28:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Samu http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=48&cpage=1#comment-191 Samu Sat, 22 Sep 2007 16:51:23 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=48#comment-191 Julian Brown makes a good point. Crude Oil did peak in roughly May 2005 and has not gone up since. Exports in many highest producing countries are either stalling or falling (often due to faster growing internal consumption). So, production of crude oil is _not_ keeping up with demand. Now we are riding on fumes and may be able to ride a little bit longer, until the reality hits in. Barring any unexpected new super giant discoveries (very low probability), looks like the plateau we are on right now, might end within a few years. But WEC is still predicting within 10-20 years? It'd be interesting to see their full data and methodology that made them arrive at this conclusion. I read parts of the WEC 2007 report and they quoted ASPO depletion studies in the Crude Oil section. However, it seems that their assessment is based on extra-heavy oil increasing, although I can't imagine even them thinking it will push us up-to 17 years beyond the crude oil peak. What is interesting that they give the peak a fairly tight margin of 10 years. Julian Brown makes a good point.

Crude Oil did peak in roughly May 2005 and has not gone up since.

Exports in many highest producing countries are either stalling or falling (often due to faster growing internal consumption).

So, production of crude oil is _not_ keeping up with demand.

Now we are riding on fumes and may be able to ride a little bit longer, until the reality hits in.

Barring any unexpected new super giant discoveries (very low probability), looks like the plateau we are on right now, might end within a few years.

But WEC is still predicting within 10-20 years?

It’d be interesting to see their full data and methodology that made them arrive at this conclusion.

I read parts of the WEC 2007 report and they quoted ASPO depletion studies in the Crude Oil section. However, it seems that their assessment is based on extra-heavy oil increasing, although I can’t imagine even them thinking it will push us up-to 17 years beyond the crude oil peak.

What is interesting that they give the peak a fairly tight margin of 10 years.

]]> By: Julian Brown http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=48&cpage=1#comment-189 Julian Brown Thu, 20 Sep 2007 20:55:40 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=48#comment-189 Predicting future trends on the basis of unreliable URR (ultimately recoverable resources) data is notoriously hard, which is why I personally prefer to base my inferences on known facts. If you look at the actual global production figures for the past few years, it is quite easy to see that total crude and condensate peaked sometime in the 2005-2006 timeframe and has been falling, albeit slowly, ever since. Moreover, total export volumes have fallen a very noticeable 10% from their 2005 peaks. In the absence of i) any particularly negative above ground factors and ii) any large new production due to come on line soon, the most obvious inference to draw is that Peak Oil has already occurred. Non-conventional sources are plainly not making up for the relentless decline in the mature fields and I haven't seen anyone present convincing arguments as to why this trend should reverse anytime soon. Since the non-conventional sources like bioethanol and shale generally have miserable EROEI (energy-return-on-energy-invested) figures, higher prices are not going to stimulate these new industries all that much either - who is going to waste valuable gas on extracting oil from bitumen sands ? Predicting future trends on the basis of unreliable URR (ultimately recoverable resources) data is notoriously hard, which is why I personally prefer to base my inferences on known facts. If you look at the actual global production figures for the past few years, it is quite easy to see that total crude and condensate peaked sometime in the 2005-2006 timeframe and has been falling, albeit slowly, ever since. Moreover, total export volumes have fallen a very noticeable 10% from their 2005 peaks. In the absence of i) any particularly negative above ground factors and ii) any large new production due to come on line soon, the most obvious inference to draw is that Peak Oil has already occurred. Non-conventional sources are plainly not making up for the relentless decline in the mature fields and I haven’t seen anyone present convincing arguments as to why this trend should reverse anytime soon. Since the non-conventional sources like bioethanol and shale generally have miserable EROEI (energy-return-on-energy-invested) figures, higher prices are not going to stimulate these new industries all that much either – who is going to waste valuable gas on extracting oil from bitumen sands ?

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