Comments on: Oil reserves over-inflated by 300bn barrels – al-Huseini

By: Richard Miller

Richard Miller — Mon, 05 Nov 2007 15:31:05 +0000

I was coming to exactly the same shape of forecast as Huseini, for a forthcoming paper at the Energy Institute, and now people will think I’m cribbing off him!

It is probably going to be a plateau, not an obvious peak, because there will be no discontinuity in either the decline rate of old fields, or in the new production from new ones. A 15 year plateau looks too long if we are to keep the ultimate recoverable within bounds (under 2600 billion barrels) and the production decline rate at no more than 4% p.a.. 10 years looks better. There will be room for occasional bumps on that plateau when something truly big gets going, much as Buzzard has temporarily reversed the UK production decline all by itself.

Al-Huseini states that Arabian giant fields are on average 41% depleted. In general, big and/or old fields are of course depleted more slowly than small and/or new fields. Brent and Forties production peaked at just 33% and 30% depletion respectively. OK, they’re smaller than the Gulf fields, and were produced comparatively fast, but it’s food for thought.

By: Saad Al-Ghamdi

Saad Al-Ghamdi — Mon, 05 Nov 2007 11:57:50 +0000

Mr. Saddad Huseini’s statements imply that the Gulf oil production reached the peak point although he did not say it clearly. I wish he could clearly and directly address the issue of the peakoil in the Gulf states. It’s more appropriate that experts speak frankly in this global issue to safe the future of the coming generations.
We still need more clarification from Mr. Al-Huseini.

By: admin

admin — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 08:31:51 +0000

Mikey B. I agree with your general point. But I wouldn’t say Mr al-Huseini’s comments were convoluted – just non-specific.

By: Mikey B

Mikey B — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 22:30:08 +0000

Dave D: Clarification would be manna from heaven but lets face it – anyone, whether it be individual or government who openly admitted to having been involved with or possessing intimate, withheld, knowledge of reserve estimate inflation would become an instant world-wide pariah. Mr Huseini’s convoluted statements maybe the closest we ever get to the truth.

By: admin

admin — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 07:59:22 +0000

Dave D: possibly, but he did go on to highlight the production difficulties of Iran, and the 41% depletion of the Gulf’s 38 biggest fields.

By: Dave D.

Dave D. — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 21:54:52 +0000

I suggest we all need further clarification on Mr. al-Huseini’s statements regarding proven reserves…couldnt he have been refering to Canada/Venezuela oil sands reserves and not middle east reserves?

By: A DeWit

A DeWit — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 16:46:07 +0000

Indeed, congratulations to Mr Strahan. I do research on Japan, which gets just under half its primary energy from oil. The political and bureaucratic elite over here dismissed peak oil a few years ago, and were very slow to respond to the new petropolitics (eg, the rise of the “new seven sisters”). There also seems to have been some confidence that the Bushies would prevail in Iraq and open those reserves to the global market. Now they’re betting heavily on nuclear power, in spite of several accidents. If any country ought to be wary of what’s unfolding, it’s Japan, which initiated the Pacific War largely to secure oil supplies. That Japan is so slow to react is an indication of how out of touch virtually all governments are.

By: Mikey B

Mikey B — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 12:40:35 +0000

This vital piece of information now confirmed by Huseini – that in the 80’s the reserve estimates were hugely inflated, has been one of the most frustrating parts of the peak oil puzzle. There can now be no doubt that Peak Oil is here. Many thanks for your website Mr Strahan.