Comments on: IEA reviews reliance on USGS resource estimates http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69 David Strahan is an award-winning investigative journalist and documentary film-maker who specializes in popularizing some of the most difficult and important stories in business and science. Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:28:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: admin http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69&cpage=1#comment-611 admin Sun, 18 Nov 2007 19:27:14 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69#comment-611 Christopher, my numbers are taken from <em>An evaluation of the U.S.Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000</em>, by T. R. Klett, Donald L. Gautier, and Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, published in AAPG Bulletin, v. 89, no. 8 (August 2005), pp. 1033–1042. This evaluation was partly based on IHS numbers at that date, but 2006 and 2007 may come in higher if IHS credits the Jack and Tupi fields with the amounts of oil claimed by the companies. Christopher, my numbers are taken from An evaluation of the U.S.Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000, by T. R. Klett, Donald L. Gautier, and Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, published in AAPG Bulletin, v. 89, no. 8 (August 2005), pp. 1033–1042. This evaluation was partly based on IHS numbers at that date, but 2006 and 2007 may come in higher if IHS credits the Jack and Tupi fields with the amounts of oil claimed by the companies.

]]> By: Christopher http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69&cpage=1#comment-584 Christopher Sun, 18 Nov 2007 00:48:58 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69#comment-584 I am trying to reconcile some numbers here. The EWG report (page 78, http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf) mentions 14.6 bn barrels of discoveries for 1995-2005 (quoting IHS as a source), which would put the USGS estimate of 22 bn in a slightly (though not much) better light than the 9bn barrels until today which you mention above. I am trying to reconcile some numbers here. The EWG report (page 78, http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf)
mentions 14.6 bn barrels of discoveries for 1995-2005 (quoting IHS as a source), which would put the USGS estimate of 22 bn in a slightly (though not much) better light than the 9bn barrels until today which you mention above.

]]> By: DrBalthar http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69&cpage=1#comment-263 DrBalthar Thu, 01 Nov 2007 18:43:15 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69#comment-263 I don't know what should scare me more. The rising speed of official voices suddenly telling the truth or the imminent impact it will have on all of us! Well most all of us in the northern hemisphere at least. I don’t know what should scare me more. The rising speed of official voices suddenly telling the truth or the imminent impact it will have on all of us! Well most all of us in the northern hemisphere at least.

]]> By: Mike Fischer http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69&cpage=1#comment-258 Mike Fischer Thu, 01 Nov 2007 11:34:02 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69#comment-258 A really seminal interview - congratulations. This raises a number of questions - how will the IEA handle the biggest administrative error of the century (Oops - we made a small mistake - we missed the point that the world is in / will probably soon go into a period of a long-lasting gap between intrinsic need and supply of liquid fuel, which ideally we should have forecast 20 years ago. Will they now give credibility to scenarios which are conservative (low oil), or will they find this too difficult to swallow. I will hope for the best, but the commercial experience is that a requirement to a change realistic changes of forecast requires a new CEO. Mr. Birol's interview gave me the impression that he is currently applying upside down logic, that as a good response to global warming issues requires a lower oil usage, ergo there will be lower oil availability. Perhaps this is also how OPEC will fudge the issue. I happily predict that the we are entering into a period of sustained global 'blaming someone else', for the forecasting failure. On the demand side, it will be interesting to see if the IEA 2008 report also makes a serious and credible attempt to look at how the last few years of high oil prices will impact the next few years of intrinsic global oil demand. The 1979-1985 oil supply constraint and price shock, reduced US oil consumption to a lower level, which did not grow back to the pre 1979 level until about 1995, even though oil became fully available at a low price as from mid 1985. Looks like Gordon Brown is about to find out that the 'foreseeable future' is a remarkably short period of time! A really seminal interview – congratulations.

This raises a number of questions – how will the IEA handle the biggest administrative error of the century (Oops – we made a small mistake – we missed the point that the world is in / will probably soon go into a period of a long-lasting gap between intrinsic need and supply of liquid fuel, which ideally we should have forecast 20 years ago. Will they now give credibility to scenarios which are conservative (low oil), or will they find this too difficult to swallow. I will hope for the best, but the commercial experience is that a requirement to a change realistic changes of forecast requires a new CEO.

Mr. Birol’s interview gave me the impression that he is currently applying upside down logic, that as a good response to global warming issues requires a lower oil usage, ergo there will be lower oil availability. Perhaps this is also how OPEC will fudge the issue.

I happily predict that the we are entering into a period of sustained global ‘blaming someone else’, for the forecasting failure.

On the demand side, it will be interesting to see if the IEA 2008 report also makes a serious and credible attempt to look at how the last few years of high oil prices will impact the next few years of intrinsic global oil demand. The 1979-1985 oil supply constraint and price shock, reduced US oil consumption to a lower level, which did not grow back to the pre 1979 level until about 1995, even though oil became fully available at a low price as from mid 1985.

Looks like Gordon Brown is about to find out that the ‘foreseeable future’ is a remarkably short period of time!

]]> By: Tony http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69&cpage=1#comment-256 Tony Wed, 31 Oct 2007 23:52:01 +0000 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69#comment-256 Finally, the IEA will begin to produce more realistic production forecasts based on a field by field basis for all countries! Next, the USGS needs to make more realistic estimates of recoverable oil reserves. Like the IEA, OPEC also relies upon the USGS estimates for its forecasts as stated in OPEC's recent World Oil Outlook 2007 page 24: "A central tenet of the OPEC long-term supply perspective assessment is that resources are sufficient to meet future demand. The resource base, as defined by estimates from the US Geological Survey (USGS) of ultimately recoverable reserves (URR), does not constitute a constraint to supplying the rising levels of oil demanded in the reference case." In other words, OPEC forecasts the oil demand future and assume that the oil forecast will be equal to the oil demand! The IEA's reference case of 116 million barrels/day production in 2030 is far too optimistic in light of not only de Margerie and Ghanem's comments but also the forecasts below. My own view is that oil production is now at a peak plateau which will last maybe to the end of 2009. This is supported by the following three forecasts made in October 2007: Energy Watch Group, oil production peaked in 2006 http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html Ex Aramco Executive, Sadad al-Husseini, peak production plateau now and overstated recoverable reserves http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=67 http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=68 The Oil Drum, peak production plateau now http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064 Finally, the IEA will begin to produce more realistic production forecasts based on a field by field basis for all countries! Next, the USGS needs to make more realistic estimates of recoverable oil reserves.

Like the IEA, OPEC also relies upon the USGS estimates for its forecasts as stated in OPEC’s recent World Oil Outlook 2007 page 24: “A central tenet of the OPEC long-term supply perspective assessment is that resources are sufficient to meet future demand. The resource base, as defined by estimates from the US Geological Survey (USGS) of ultimately recoverable reserves (URR), does not constitute a constraint to supplying the rising levels of oil demanded in the reference case.” In other words, OPEC forecasts the oil demand future and assume that the oil forecast will be equal to the oil demand!

The IEA’s reference case of 116 million barrels/day production in 2030 is far too optimistic in light of not only de Margerie and Ghanem’s comments but also the forecasts below.

My own view is that oil production is now at a peak plateau which will last maybe to the end of 2009. This is supported by the following three forecasts made in October 2007:

Energy Watch Group, oil production peaked in 2006
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html

Ex Aramco Executive, Sadad al-Husseini, peak production plateau now and overstated recoverable reserves
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=67
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=68

The Oil Drum, peak production plateau now
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064

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